Sea level rise this century

Pictured above: Change in sea level (m above 1981 2000 mean sea level) for high and low emission scenarios.

The greatest projected sea level rise in Scotland occurs in the north, with a lesser projected increase affecting coasts of the Central Belt and southern Scotland. Although the graphs above run to 2100, sea level rise is slow moving and it is important to look beyond this century, because that is when the largest changes will occur (see www.adaptation.scot).

Sea level changes occur due to tides and storm surges on short time scales and due to global climate change and land mass movements on longer time scales. Sea level around the Scottish coast is rising due to climate change, but the rate of increase differs regionally.

• The last 3 years were the three highest on record for UK annual mean sea level in a series from 1901, with the 21st Century so far (2001–2024) including the 17 highest years.
• Sea level rise will worsen coastal erosion and flood risk to coastal communities and infrastructure in Scotland in the coming decades
• Projections anticipate up to 1.16m of sea level rise in Scotland by 2100 under a high emissions scenario
• Sea level rise could be faster and higher, and it will NOT stop at 2100

Mean sea level

Mean sea level is the average height of the ocean’s surface. It is influenced by various factors including local tides, ocean circulation and climate change. Annual mean sea level is the height of the sea averaged over a year. This removes short term fluctuations caused by waves and tides.

Sea level rise has many consequences for coastal communities including through impacts on coastal infrastructure such as roads, railway lines, harbours and iconic locations. It will also have implications for coastal ecosystems and natural habitats.